study was undertaken in mid-2011, to understand and quantify the drivers of
demand for tractors and forecast the demand for tractors in the country, over
the next five years.
Some three years earlier, the primary concern regarding the market for tractors
in India was on how long the market will sustain at 300,000 units. No one could
see the market reaching 500,000 units and above, just 3 years later.
The task at hand was to identify the causes and ascertain if the scenario has
changed drastically or, like it has happened several times in the past, whether
the market could shrink to half this level when there is a sharp setback of
The study was initiated to answer one of the most critical questions facing the
tractor industry in India.
The study examines the trends in the purchase of tractors, over the years,
taking into account a host of factors, with inputs from experts, tractor
owners, farmers not owning tractors and everyone concerned, to understand the
factors that led to an almost doubling of demand in 3 years.
In addition to the qualitative and quantitative exercises, the study also used
secondary data on tractor demand over the years, agricultural production, value
of agricultural production and a host of other related elements such as NREGS,
Bharat Nirman, agricultural credit, etc., to build a forecasting model and do