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TWO-WHEELERS : 2017
A FORECASTING, SEGMENTATION AND PERFORMANCE AND IMAGE EVALUATION STUDY
(The eleventh round since 1999)

The study provides 4 separate reports covering the following aspects of the Two-Wheeler market :

1] Demand analysis:

The report forecasts the demand for two-wheelers in India, taking into account the purchases in 2015-16 and 2016-17 and the changes in options, pricing and environment that have taken place since the previous round of the study in 2015.

Similarly, the forecast by different types of two-wheelers has also been recast. The forecast is being provided from 2017-18 till 2019-20 at the all-India and state total levels.

It must be noted here that our forecasts so far have had a deviation of just 0% to 3% from the actuals, except in 2007, when the credit squeeze started impacting the demand.

2a] Segmentation Analysis:

The report provides a detailed segmentation analysis of the two-wheeler market in 2015-16 and 2016-17 and integrates it with the analyses done upto 2015, to identify trends and turning points, if any, across segments.

The segmentation objectives were to estimate the following:

1] How big is each segment?
2] How has each segment been growing over the years?
3] Which are the types of vehicles that the segments have been buying over the years?
4] What is the distribution of the segments across population strata?
5] What is the profile of each segment?

The segmentation variables are:

1] Specific need that led to the purchase of the two-wheeler
2] Circumstances leading to the purchase
3] Main purpose of purchase
4] Funding of the vehicle
5] Whether two-wheeler purchased family / personal use
6] First time/second time/third time buyers
7] Height of the person
8] Build of the person
9] Extent of dependence of the buyer on the two-wheeler
10] No. of kilometres the respondent is riding now on an average day
11] Sex
12] Age
13] Education
14] Occupation
15] Marital status
16] Stated monthly household income
17] Economic status
18] Riding style at the time of purchase
19] Mode of commuting before the purchase of the first two-wheeler
20] Ownership and usage of bicycles
21] Other vehicles owned in the household currently
22] What was done with the vehicle the respondent had bought earlier
23] Average no. of mileage that the currently owned vehicle is giving
24] No. of kilometres the currently owned vehicle has done so far

2b] Cluster Analysis:

The report provides a classification of various brands of two-wheelers into clusters, based on 26 variables defining the buyer of the vehicle. This analysis leads to a natural classification because the groups are not defined a priori, but are formed based on the similarity of the buyers on these 26 variables.

The variables used for clustering were:

1] Age
2] Build of the buyer
3] Education
4] Height of the buyer
5] Income
6] Marital status
7] Sex
8] Riding style
9] First / replacement buyers
10] Extent of participation in various sports
11] Usage - family or personal
12] Extent of dependence on vehicle
13] Student
14] Being self-employed / businessman / trader
15] Employed in government / private sector
16] Farmer
17] Skilled worker
18] States with a sizeable sales of mopeds
19] States with sizeable sales of scooters
20] Average kms driven
21] Does not favour parties
22] Family based decision
23] Enjoy parties
24] Reflects self identity
25] Makes you acceptable
26] Serves functional needs

The clusters then become the most fundamental way of customer segmentation of the two-wheeler market. And it follows that the cluster defines the following:

  a] It defines the specific customer segment in which the brand competes. We could juxtapose this segment against all two-wheeler buyers to see characteristics which are different for this cluster. In other words, it defines who our customers really are.
b] It defines the brands against which it competes directly. This follows from the fact that a brand competes the most with other brands that compete for the same kind of customer.
c] Most importantly, the cluster defines the size and growth of the market that the brand addresses specifically. Because the clustering does not happen the way we presume that it should, the size of the market that is directly addressable by our brand is not the same as what we presume that it would be.
d] By defining the vehicles with which we compete directly, the clusters also define where our markets are and what their distribution is. And that would be the very basic information that we need for targeting and related resource allocation.

3] Evaluation of Motivations for Purchase, Performance and Image of Individual Brands (Tracking study of two-wheelers):

With a sample of 15,000 two-wheeler owners who bought their vehicles in 2015-16 and 2016-17, this report provides a comprehensive analysis of the motivations for purchase, vehicles considered as options, perceptions related to performance of the vehicles and their image.

The main advantages of this report are as follows:

1] The sample is rendered nationally representative covering 16 states and 5 population strata.
2] The findings on individual brands will have for comparison every single major brand in its category and otherwise.

Some 60 brands have sample sizes which allow us to do a detailed analysis of their status vis-a'-vis competing vehicles.


4] Penetration of two-wheelers:

This report provides a detailed analysis of the penetration of two-wheelers among households and individuals across the country, and within the states and population strata